Sep 18, 2006

Information Bias (Cognitive Bias #3)

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What is it?
  Information bias is the tendency to seek more information about a problem even when it's not helpful in making a decision or taking action.  If all data can be split into two camps, there is useful information (signal), and useless noise.  Because we don't know which is which unless we first have an opportunity to interpret the new information, we assume that the cost of continuously gathering new information is less than the value of the possibility that something useful might be found from it.

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Sep 08, 2006

Contrast Effect (Cognitive Bias #2)

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What is it?
  The contrast effect is one of the most obvious biases we have.  It's the tendency to judge things based on the things that are near them (either in time or in space).  Things seem bigger when they're near smaller things, and vice versa.

Why is it useful?  It's extremely useful to compare things to each other.  You can then easily find and eat the plumpest peach, pick the cutest kitten, buy the cheapest DVD player, and watch the best movie.

How can it be harmful?  It tempts you to compare yourself to the Jones's, to feel like your iPod isn't as good anymore now that a new version came out, it makes you feel okay in your crappy job when you get a raise, and sometimes it feels as if nothing is as great as the first time you did it, heard it, saw it, or experienced it.

Links:

Sep 01, 2006

Bandwagon Effect (Cognitive Bias #1)

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What is it?  The Bandwagon Effect is the tendency to do something, or believe in something, simply because lots of other people do. 

Literally, bandwagons are wagons that carry the band in a parade. Being on the bandwagon was a very convenient way to experience the parade since you got to listen to the music and didn’t have to walk. Since William Jennings Bryan used the phrase “hop on the bandwagon” during his 1900 presidential campaign, it has itself become a trendy term to express the naive adoption of popular trends simply because they are popular.

Why is it useful?  Like most biases, the Bandwagon Effect is useful because it outsources thinking.  Rather than have to think about a particular decision or problem yourself, you can assume that other people have already thought about it sufficiently and that you can trust the majority opinion.  This is not necessarily a bad thing.  According to James Surowiecki and his book, The Wisdom of Crowds, the crowd is often smarter and more accurate than any of the individuals in the crowd.  Going with the crowd could ultimately prevent you from making mistakes that you might otherwise have made.  It will also prevent you from being alone if and when you make those mistakes.  As some like to say, we may burn in hell, but at least all of our friends will be there with us.

Not knowing why a decision was made also makes it difficult to defend the position should it come under attack... luckily, because you're with the crowd, you often aren't called on to defend the position.

How can it be harmful?  The reason this bias is harmful is because you do not know why the bandwagon decided to take the action or support the belief that it did.  Intentions are everything, and when you take advantage of the bandwagon effect's short-cut, your intention is essentially laziness.  You are in the wake of other intentions, and if you knew that everyone else had made a decision based on the same intention that you yourself did, you would probably decide not to hop on the bandwagon in the first place, right?  It is a short-cut to tangible results, at the cost of not knowing why those results are desired.  This is only harmful if truly nobody on the bandwagon thought out the problem more than you have, or if the people that did think it through have motives that you wouldn't stand behind should they be revealed.

Link: Bandwagon effect [Wikipedia]

Aug 31, 2006

New Series: Cognitive Biases

My favorite page on Wikipedia is their list of cognitive biases.  I've gone to it probably a hundred times, each time trying to understand better what's so fascinating about it.  My tentative conclusion is that I have a suspicion that all of our problems and questions are a result of the brain's attempt to be practical and efficient.  Cognitive biases are the tools that allow us to make decisions, find patterns, and live in a world of ambiguity without being bogged down by infinite possibilities and paralysis.  The cost, however, is that these biases are both our greatest strength and our greatest weakness. 

During this series of posts, I'd like to walk through each of the biases one-by-one, in each case stating the bias, its strengths, and its weaknesses in the hopes that we can learn to recognize the tools that we use and learn when the tools might get in the way and harm us rather than help us.